From an interview on Truthwire here…
In a recent episode of Truthwire, I sat down with analyst Ehsan Safarnejad to explore the collapse of the latest round of talks between Iran and the United States, held in Pakistan’s capital. The negotiations were predictably doomed, based on Washington’s history of broken promises and an inherently unreliable approach to diplomacy. Like many I question why Iran would engage with the U.S. and Israel—actors the world has seen act untrustworthy even toward their own allies.
Ehsan, while personally opposed to the ceasefire, offered a more layered defense of Iran’s decision to participate in the talks, arguing that the ceasefire emerged not from weakness but from a strategic calculus following an IRGC threat to target Persian Gulf monarchies if U.S. infrastructure strikes proceeded. He also pointed to China’s veto of a Security Council resolution to open the Strait of Hormuz, suggesting Beijing may have pressured Tehran into negotiations in exchange for diplomatic cover—which also benefits them because they are severely affected by closing the Strait of Hormuz. “I find myself in the uncomfortable situation of justifying a policy I don’t support,” Ehsan admitted, “but criticism must be nuanced—otherwise, it does Mossad’s bidding.”
The conversation then pivoted to the role of China and Russia, where unlike the vast majority of “independent media” (often funded by Russia and China) we pushed back against a rather romanticized view of these powers. In my experience of living in Russia, I noted that neither country has acted as a genuine anti-imperialist force or altruistic beacons but instead move pragmatically. I cited the continued trade with Israel and a lack of defense pacts with Iran, which Ehsan echoed, warning against what he called an “objectophilia” toward Russia and China, pointing to their arms sales to Gulf monarchies and endorsement of territorial claims against Iran. “They’re not bad countries,” he clarified, “but they’re security partners, not allies—and that distinction matters.”
On the question of whether further talks are likely, we both expressed deep skepticism with both of us also predicting a possible other round in Islamabad. But Ehsan like many of us skeptics, frankly referenced the vulnerability of any potential deal as short-lived as “a carton of milk left outside in July.” He argued that the U.S. is using negotiations to buy time for rearmament, while Iran is doing the same to reinforce its missile infrastructure and maintain the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. I noted that the U.S. has never entered a negotiation without ensuring the outcome serves its own crushing advantage, with Libya and Venezuela as cautionary tales.
One other prevailing online narrative which Ehsan strongly pushed back against, are claims that Iran was on the verge of victory before accepting a ceasefire. He detailed how Iran has used the pause to reopen military supply lines, and restore damaged railways and bridges within days, shifting oil sales to “free on board” terms that place legal and diplomatic burdens on buyers like China. “Short of a U.S. nuclear strike,” he said, “Iran holds escalation dominance at every level.” One thing worth reminding viewers is also that watching war from afar is one thing, but such strategic talk of states should and should not do, often overlook the human toll. On this, I urge audiences not to treat geopolitics like a spectator sport or video game—these are real lives at the helm.
The reality is that neither the U.S. nor Israel is likely to honor any long-term truce. Ehsan urged patience, comparing the current moment to past tactical retreats by Hezbollah that were later vindicated. Again a reminder to our audience that for those living under the threat of bombs, these are not games but daily realities. “Most Americans could not last one hour, with what people abroad endure.”
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