Vanessa and I dive deep into the Trump Administration’s pivot to waging war on Latin America, starting in South America. Rather than a direct confrontation with Iran or a renewed campaign in Yemen, the Trump administration has opened a new, aggressive front much closer to home. The targets are Venezuela, followed by Colombia and the pretext is a familiar one: the “War on Drugs.” The tired, failed and easily recognizable not-so-covert op flooding Latin America with narco regimes, in order to promote regime change operations and extract highly coveted resources and minerals from the rich region.
This shift was expected, especially with deep-state favorite Marco Rubio as Secretary of State, is less about ending fentanyl overdoses in the U.S. like the President has been claiming, but more about a strategic play for resources and a concerted effort to dismantle one of the last bastions of anti-imperialism in South America, with profound implications for the entire region, the global balance of power, and the coming industrial revolution.
The “Narco-State” Pretext: A Justification for Regime Change
Not surprisingly, the Trump administration has dramatically escalated its rhetoric and actions against the government of Nicolás Maduro, framing Venezuela as a “narco-state” and launching extrajudicial missile strikes against alleged drug traffickers in the Caribbean but the narrative is clearly a fabrication. Vanessa points out that 87% of the drug trafficking routes come up the Western side through the Pacific and into America that way: “So in reality, what it looks like is the U.S. is actually protecting its own drug running operations, which, of course, are under the control of the CIA.”
This “narco-state” label is a well-worn tool of U.S. foreign policy, previously used against Syria’s Bashar al-Assad. Notably, since the fall of the Syrian government in late 2024, the Captagon trade has increased exponentially, suggesting the drugs were always controlled by the insurgent groups, not the state they sought to overthrow.
A Domino Effect: If Venezuela Falls, Then All Will Collapse In LATAM
The assault on Venezuela is not an isolated incident but as the first attempt to unleash a deadly domino in a line of the last few, sovereign nations left standing in Latin America.
I said, “If Venezuela were to go down, it would go down and take with it pretty much the entirety of Latin America. It is one of the last remaining bastions of anti-imperialism, especially in South America.”
The geopolitical stakes are immense. The continent is rich in oil, lithium, gold, and other critical minerals vital for future tech in AI, computers, and the 4th Industrial Revolution. U.S. strategy aims to secure these resources and sever the ties between Latin American nations and the global “resistance axis,” which includes Iran, Yemen, and other allies. It also aims to disturb Chinese expansion in the region, as Beijing has become a huge problem as a fierce competitor for economic influence in South America.
The focus on Venezuela is also deeply personal for key figures in the Trump administration, notably Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who’s been behind the NGOs and the money ties directly to overthrowing Maduro for now over a decade, with a neoconservative, long-standing agenda that predates Trump’s presidency.
An Unlikely Alliance: Colombia, Brazil, and the Bolivarian Spirit
A significant obstacle to U.S. plans is the emergence of a potential strategic understanding between Venezuela, Colombia, and Brazil.
Colombian President Gustavo Petro, a former guerrilla fighter, has emerged as a vocal critic of Trump’s policy. In a blistering appearance on Univision, a Spanish-language channel often compared to CNN for its establishment and spook leanings, Petro accused the U.S. of using the drug war as a “policy of domination.” He directly called Trump a “murderer” for the extrajudicial killings and stated, “They kill a million Latin Americans and the demand of the United States has reduced a gram of cocaine... That’s called domination.”
This alignment between Petro, Venezuela’s Maduro, and Brazil’s Lula da Silva signals a regional bloc that understands its survival depends on unity. The pragmatism of it all is that one of the is next and they know this, especially Petro who has now been sanctioned by Washington.
The Limits of External Support: Russia’s Calculated Moves
Many observers look to Russia and China as potential counterweights to U.S. aggression. Recently, Russia’s State Duma ratified a “strategic partnership” treaty with Venezuela but a closer look reveals its limitations.
The treaty enhances cooperation in political, economic, and security issues but contains no mutual defense clause. Russia is not treaty-bound to come to Venezuela’s military defense but Venezuela has had Russian weapons with limited use for a while, and with this treaty Russia can secure access to Venezuela’s resources at favorable prices while the country is under pressure.
“Russia sees an opportunity,” Vanessa noted, “and if that opportunity provides Venezuela with some degree of support, it’s fine. Then it’s kind of a win-win to some degree, but Russia will come out better than Venezuela from this kind of agreement.”
This pattern of realpolitik is reminiscent of Russia’s recent engagement with the Al-Qaeda-affiliated Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in Syria, which it has effectively legitimized to protect its own military and economic interests in the region. Ultimately neither Russia nor China will likely go out of their way defense-wise for Venezuela, as they always stress respecting sovereignty and following the U.N. Charter but also because they see little benefit to this on their end and are focused on BRICS.
The People’s Resistance: Maduro’s Popularity and National Unity
Ultimately, the greatest obstacle to regime change in Venezuela may be the Venezuelan people themselves. Despite years of brutal sanctions and a relentless media campaign, Nicolás Maduro maintains significant popular support.
“Maduro is one of the most popular presidents, if not the most popular president in the world today,” Vanessa stated. “He’s done a very good job and he does a very good job of communicating with the people... appealing to their sense of patriotism and refusal to kneel to supremacism and neocolonialism.”
Venezuela may have endured decades of regime change attempts from Washington, back before Maduro and during Hugo Chavez, incuding sanctions and economic attacks from the U.S. that caused much strife and directly contributed to the migration and border issues many in Trump’s circle complain about. However, the Venezuelan people have an ideological spirit, similar to the Axis of Resistance, that pushes them to remain loyal to their sovereign state
This sentiment is bolstered by the collective memory of the Bolivarian revolution and the social programs, like public housing, instituted under the late Hugo Chávez. The U.S. strategy may be inadvertently strengthening this resolve, much as external aggression united Iranians across the political spectrum during the recent conflict with Israel. The coming months will test whether U.S. strategy relies on economic pressure, assassination, false flag operations, or outright military conflict. But the Trump administration’s actions are also having a unifying effect against the establishment.
In fact, in Latin America and in the Latino community within the United States, even those who have not been fond of Maduro, have been entirely turned off by Trump’s actions with ICE, their threats, their kidnapping of people, targeting families, and also the illegal murder of fisherman at sea, with no evidence or trial. Beyond the Latino community, Trump’s own former MAGA have grown critical of the expansion surveillance state methods under the guise of curtailing “illegal immigration”.
The battle for Venezuela is a microcosm of a larger global struggle. It is about resource extraction, hemispheric dominance, and the erosion of sovereign states that resist integration into a U.S.-led order. While the immediate weapon is the “narco-state” accusation, the ultimate goal is to collapse a critical node in the network of global resistance.
